Forecasting refers to predicting future trends of business operations, socio-organizational behavior, economic markets, and policy-making. Forecasting aids business managers in strategizing for sales, adjusting resources, and other future scenarios. Forecasting utilizes…
What is forecasting?
Qualitative Methods of Forecasting
Qualitative methods of forecasting are most often used when historical data is unavailable and rely on expert judgments. Examples include the Delphi Method, Scenario Writing Method, and Subjective Approach Method.
Delphi Method:
• The Delphi method is also called the group consensus method and typically involves a panel of experts from various backgrounds who answer questionnaires until they reach a general consensus. Scenario Writing Method:
• In the scenario writing method, a forecaster will develop several future scenarios based on different assumptions that the business will then use to decide which scenario is most likely to occur. Subjective Approach Method:
• The subject approach method relies on the feelings, ideas, and personal experiences of the forecasters to make predictions. The forecasters may be employees and executives of a business as part of a “brainstorming session,” or exclusively include the salespeople of the business under the “grassroots approach.”
Quantitative Methods of Forecasting
Quantitative methods are used for forecasting when historical data is available and is based on the date of specific variables of interest. The two common methods are the time series and causal method.
Time Series:
• The time series method relies on a specific variable’s past trend in order to forecast future trends of the variable. Causal Method:
• The causal method analyzes the “cause-and-effect” relationships of several variables, such as interest rates and disposable income. See also: University of Chicago Law Review essay, When the Market Watches the Court; The Supreme Court Forecasting Project (2004); Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Forecasting US inflation in real time; and more generally the International Journal of Forecasting.
Why forecasting matters
forecasting appears in U.S. legal practice across multiple practice areas. Knowing what it means — and when it applies — can determine the outcome of motions, filings, and negotiations. For non-lawyers, the value of looking up a precise definition is that legal terms often carry meanings that differ from everyday usage; relying on the common meaning can lead to costly missteps.
How forecasting works in practice
In practice, forecasting is invoked when parties, judges, or attorneys need to identify the legal status of an issue, the rights of those involved, or the procedural step required next. The definition shown above is sourced from Cornell LII Wex , which is widely cited in U.S. legal practice. Because U.S. law is jurisdictionally layered — federal, state, and sometimes local — the precise application of the term can vary by court, so check the controlling authority for your specific case.